What is it about?
The Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB) remains one of the greatest challenges in forecasting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sea surface temperature (SST) variations are known to strongly regulate atmospheric convection, which in turn influences the Walker circulation and ENSO evolution. Identifying the oceanic regions most favorable for convection development in spring may therefore offer an effective way to weaken the SPB. Here we introduce a SST Range Index that measures the spatial extent of Sea surface temperatures conducive to convection in both the Pacific and Atlantic.
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Photo by Cemrecan Yurtman on Unsplash
Why is it important?
We found that thresholds of 26 °C in the east-central Pacific and 28.5 °C in the Atlantic emerge as critical for triggering persistent convection, and the expansion of these regions enhances ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO development. Incorporating SST Range Index into a deep learning model significantly improves ENSO predictions, especially for multiyear La Niña events, offering an approach to overcoming the spring predictability barrier.
Perspectives
It was an honor for me to collaborate with so many outstanding scholars on this article. I sincerely thank all my co-authors for their support, guidance, and invaluable help throughout this process.I also hope that this study will contribute to improving ENSO prediction and help reduce its adverse climate impacts.
Zepeng Mei
Fujian Normal University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Identifying key convection-sensitive oceanic regions to weaken the ENSO spring predictability barrier, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, March 2026, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2512725123.
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