GEP under correlated uncertainty of mass penetration renewable energy sources

What is it about?

This study presents a methodology for generation expansion planning (GEP) under the presence of uncertainty of multiple renewable energy sources (RES). Both long- and short-term uncertainties are represented and incorporated within the proposed GEP model. The long-term RES uncertainty is simulated by the annual variation of the capacity credit. The short-term uncertainty is modelled by means of the net power based on the hourly variation of RES output power and load curve. The proposed GEP model is solved through three steps. In the first step, the proposed robust GEP model is solved considering the long-term uncertainty of the multiple RES. Short-term uncertainty is considered when solving the GEP model in the second step. In the last step, the robustness of the obtained robust GEP model results is verified by checking the reliability criteria. A new correlated polyhedral uncertainty set is introduced considering the correlation between the different RES uncertain coefficients through its correlation matrix. Different GEP results are presented for different uncertainty scenarios. The results demonstrate that considering the correlation among uncertain coefficients provides insight for effects of correlation on investment strategies. Reserve margin is adapted to cope with uncertainty impact.

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Photo by Alex Simpson on Unsplash

Photo by Alex Simpson on Unsplash

Why is it important?

The main contribution of this paper is as follows: • Both long- and short-term different RES uncertainty effect is considered in this paper. The long-term uncertainty is represented through the annual variation of the calculated RES capacity credit. While the short-term uncertainty is represented through the hourly RES power output. Both terms of uncertainty are incorporated within the proposed robust GEP model. • The correlation in uncertainty among different RES plants is considered. Hence, a new correlated polyhedral uncertainty set is introduced based on the uncertain coefficients through its correlation matrix. • A reserve margin is proposed to cope with the long- and short term uncertainty effect. The robust GEP model considered the loss of load expectation (LOLE) to ensure system security and reliability.

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