What is it about?
A summary of 3 studies that test judgements of probabilities (singular and conjunctions) throughout childhood and into adulthood. This includes the development of a new test, a functionally equivalent but child-friendly version of the famous Linda problem. We test how new information influences childhood probability judgements.
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Why is it important?
The research shows how children below 10 years old do not update their beliefs in line with new information, however, there is a magnitude shift similar to adults from 10 years old. This shows how young children are not as sensitive to new information as adults, paradoxically this can mean young children do not make the same types of judgement errors as some adults (conjunction fallacy).
Perspectives
This publication represents a fresh look at how children take in new information, and how their initial judgements are often held constant even in the face of new information. The next logical step is to test this further, manipulating the type and amount of background information to see if there is further nuance in this decision model.
Dean Marshall
Liverpool John Moores University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Probability errors in children’s judgements about the likelihood of social characteristics., Developmental Psychology, August 2024, American Psychological Association (APA),
DOI: 10.1037/dev0001815.
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