What is it about?
A forecast model based on temperature, combined with several future climate scenarios, has been applied to predict the start dates of six airborne pollen types in Barcelona. All projections indicate an advancement of pollen seasons over the 21st century; the more pessimistic the climate scenario, the greater the forecasted advancement. By the end of the century, these advances range from 15 to 27 days for the scenario with the highest concentrations, RCP8.5, and from 7 to 12 days for the emissions stabilization scenario, RCP4.5.
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Why is it important?
The results of the application of the model to the temperature projections over the 21st century point to a progressive advancement in the pollination dates of several pollen types abundant in Barcelona, most of which are allergenic. Knowledge of this advancement will help in anticipating changes, enabling both health centers and the general public to be better prepared for what is to come.
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Projections of the start of the airborne pollen season in Barcelona (NE Iberian Peninsula) over the 21st century, The Science of The Total Environment, May 2024, Elsevier,
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173363.
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