What is it about?

In many corners of the developing world, a looming challenge presents itself: youth unemployment. Despite accounting for only 17% of the world's population, those aged 16 to 24 make up a staggering 40% of the global unemployed. Beyond the obvious financial strain, this statistic also exacerbates societal issues—rising crime, mental health challenges, increased substance abuse, and growing feelings of social isolation. Enter Nepal's innovative response: a grand-scale youth training initiative. Each year, this program reaches out to nearly 15,000 of the country's most disadvantaged youths, offering them not just vocational training but also critical placement services in the job market. The outcomes, as our recent study reveals, are nothing short of encouraging: 1. Empowering Women Through Self-Employment: Just a year into the program, there's been a marked increase in non-farm employment, ranging from 10% to an impressive 31%. A significant portion of this growth comes from women setting up entrepreneurial ventures right from their homes. What's more, the financial rewards are palpable: women in the program have seen their monthly incomes grow by anywhere between 659 NRs (roughly 9 USD) to as high as 2,113 NRs (around 28 USD). 2. Men Finding Value in Skill Enhancement: The story is slightly different for men. Immediate post-training results don't show a significant uptick in non-farm employment. However, there's a silver lining: a clear rise in earnings across any form of job. This suggests that men leverage this training to enhance their skills, aiming for better-paying roles. 3. Looking Beyond the Immediate: Two years on, the narrative evolves. Men seem to be finding their footing, with a significant 19 percentage-point jump in non-farm self-employment. For women, while the medium-term trends are in line with the short-term, it's essential to interpret these with a bit of caution due to sample size limitations. In a world grappling with the challenges of youth unemployment, Nepal's initiative shines as a promising example. The program not only equips its youth with skills but, as our study indicates, paves the way for a more financially stable and empowered future.

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Why is it important?

In a world grappling with unemployment, especially among the youth, understanding the root causes is essential. Among the myriad factors, the lack of adequate skills often stands out prominently. As we ponder solutions, one approach that frequently emerges is vocational training programs. Throughout the globe, these training interventions have been spotlighted as potential game-changers, promising to pave the way for the youth's seamless transition into meaningful employment with better earnings. Early evaluations, rooted mainly in observational studies, painted a rosy picture: training seemed to bolster job probabilities and wage outcomes. However, a pivot to more recent experimental studies, especially from middle- and high-income countries, tells a slightly different story, casting doubts on their efficacy in securing jobs, though still hinting at some modest earnings improvements. Enter our study, which throws another twist in this narrative. Our research uncovers considerable positive ripple effects from a specific training program, especially pronounced among females. The impact is most tangible regarding job acquisition, work hours, and earnings. A striking detail? A significant chunk of these women were diving into non-farm self-employment ventures, operating primarily within their homes. This finding isn't just an isolated beacon: it's in sync with a handful of studies centered on low-income countries, showcasing some of the most pronounced employment boosts attributed to training programs globally. Here is the big question: what's fuelling these pronounced results, especially when seen against the backdrop of more modest outcomes from richer countries? A mix of elements can shed some light. The socio-economic canvas of low-income regions, coupled with South Asia's unique dynamics and the specifics of our training program, unravel this mystery. At its core, our findings underscore the acute lack of alternative job avenues and skill training opportunities in Nepal, a vacuum further deepened by overarching low education levels. This landscape is starkly different from middle-income nations like those in Latin America. The contrast is especially glaring for women, amplifying the potential impact of our intervention. In summation, while training interventions are not a one-size-fits-all remedy, their potential in specific contexts, like that of Nepal, is undeniable. As the global community strives to combat unemployment, understanding these nuances becomes vital in charting the path forward.

Perspectives

The results of my study have important implications for the design and implementation of future training interventions in low-income countries. The empirical analysis presented here suggests important lessons for successfully modeling effective labor market interventions where youth and female unemployment is challenging. In line with the few other existing studies on similar programs in low-income countries, this study's estimates of the employment effects of this training intervention are among the largest for training programs worldwide. Several factors account for these large program effects. Features of the low-income background, the South Asian context, and the specific training intervention likely account for the large program impacts that we find. First, our program impacts are likely driven by a lack of alternative employment and skill training opportunities and by extremely low education levels. Both of these phenomena are much more pronounced in the context of Nepal when compared with the context of the most recent experimental interventions from middle-income countries (i.e., in Latin America), especially for women. Finally, the results of my study have important implications for the design and implementation of future training interventions in low-income countries. The empirical analysis presented here suggests important lessons for successfully modeling effective labor market interventions where youth and female unemployment is challenging.

Dr. Plamen Nikolov
Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science

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This page is a summary of: Vocational training programs and youth labor market outcomes: Evidence from Nepal, Journal of Development Economics, January 2019, Elsevier,
DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.09.002.
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