Environmental footprint analysis of low carbon, more electric UK transition pathways to 2050

What is it about?

Environmental footprint analysis (EFA) has been employed here to estimate the footprints associated with three low carbon, more electric transition pathways for the United Kingdom (UK): described as ‘Market Rules’ (MR), ‘Central Co-ordination’ (CC) and ‘Thousand Flowers’ (TF) respectively. The present research examined the most recent version 2.1 (v2.1) of the pathway narratives: driven by the market, central government intervention, and local community initiatives respectively. This emphasis on ‘governance’ as a prime mover of market development is a novel feature in terms of energy futures research in Britain. These pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. EFA has therefore been employed to estimate the environmental and resource burdens associated with UK power generation based on historic data and the three transition pathways. Their overall environmental footprint has been disaggregated into various components: bioproductive and built land, carbon emissions, embodied energy, materials and waste, transport, and water consumption. Electricity demand was projected to decrease significantly under the TF pathway by 2050, but its total environmental footprint was greater than either that under the MR or CC pathways. This is mainly due to the increase in the use of bioproductive land associated with solid biofuel production and that of the carbon footprint, which are both seen to be larger than under either the MR or CC cases. Water and waste footprint components made almost negligibly small contributions under all three transition pathways.

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Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

Photo by Zbynek Burival on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Environmental or ‘ecological’ footprints have been widely used in recent years as indicators of resource consumption and waste absorption transformed on the basis of biologically productive land area [in global hectares (gha)] required per capita with prevailing technology. This component-based approach provides, for example, a means for evaluating the implications for the so-called ‘energy-land-water nexus’. Electricity demand was projected to decrease significantly under the TF pathway by 2050, but its total environmental footprint (EF) was greater than either that under the MR or CC pathways. This is mainly due to the increase in the use of bioproductive land associated with solid biofuel production and that of the carbon footprint, which are both seen to be larger than under either the MR or CC cases. Water and waste footprint components made almost negligibly small contributions under all three transition pathways. Lessons can clearly be drawn for other industrialised nations attempting to decarbonise their electricity generation systems, although local circumstances will determine the country-specific findings.This component-based approach has enabled the examination of the 'Manufactured' and 'Natural Capital' elements of the ‘four capitals’ model of sustainability quite broadly, along with specific issues (such as the linkages associated with the so-called ‘energy-land-water nexus’). The current EFA method is consistent with that developed by the Global Footprint Network (GFN) and related bodies. Lessons can be drawn for other industrialised countries attempting to decarbonise their electricity generation systems, although local circumstances will limit the wider applicability of the present findings.

Perspectives