Modelling resilience of a water supply system under a range of pressures

What is it about?

Climate change impacts and increased demand due to population growth are among the most common disruptions or pressures that can undermine the service potential of a water supply system. Consequently, the successful management of a water supply system depends on an in-depth understanding of the resilience of the system to such pressures. This study developed a robust modelling approach to assess the resilience of a water supply system enabling the identification of critical trigger points at which the system would fail.

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Why is it important?

The reliability of a water supply system depends on its ability to provide a sufficient quantity of water of a stipulated quality to end users without disruptions. However, disruptive forces (pressures) can act on a water supply system, reducing the supply potential. The successful management of a water supply system depends on an in-depth understanding of the system’s resilience. This paper presents a modelling approach developed to assess the resilience of a water supply system under the compounding pressures of rainfall reduction due to climate change impacts and increase in demand due to population growth. The novelty of this research study is that it provides a technically robust modelling approach to identify the critical trigger points where a water supply system is likely to fail.

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