Estimating flood risk from tropical cyclones under climate change

What is it about?

This study shows how we can use synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events to assess flood risk. The synthetic events are used to determine wind speeds for a given return period, both for the present climate and under global warming. The hypothetical events are then created based on the value of a selected return period. Using the hypothetical events, the number of hydrodynamic simulations is reduced, as well as the computational time to calculate the flood levels. Using the flood levels and the vulnerability at the city block level, the methodology determines the flood risk in a city at the Mexican Pacific coast.

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Photo by Michael M on Unsplash

Photo by Michael M on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Tropical cyclones represent a threat to infrastructure and population at the coast. To provide better management and planning, it is important to determine the storm surge generated by such events. Due to the limited historical information on tropical cyclones arriving in a particular area, it is required to find alternative approaches for assessing flood levels. The approach presented in this article provides an alternative to reduce computation time in comparison to the modeling of thousands of synthetic events, thus providing a tool for decision-makers to do risk assessments and improve disaster management, mitigation strategies, and land use planning.

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