What is it about?
In this study, we assessed and compared the efficiency and robustness of optimized spatial strategies for targeting CPs and land use changes to control nutrient loss from agricultural watersheds under a changing climate. Physical nutrient reduction effectiveness and economic efficiency of these strategies were assessed using an integrated framework (Xu et al. 2018) that includes three components: (1) an ecohydrological model—the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT; Arnold et al. 2010, 1998)—to evaluate the effects of CPs and alternative land uses on crop/plant yields and nutrient discharges at the field scale, (2) an economic valuation component that estimates economic costs and income losses associated with each CP or land use change, and (3) a linear optimization algorithm to identify optimal spatial patterns of land use and management that can maximize economic returns at watershed scale, given a certain nutrient reduction target.
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Why is it important?
Understanding robustness of alternative management strategies, both physically and economically, to climate change is important for managers, policymakers, and stakeholders as they seek to prioritize allocation of limited conservation funding for more effective and robust actions, which can be critical to ensure the success of water quality improvement.
Perspectives
We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (> 71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~ 78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate.
Ph.D Hui Xu
Argonne National Laboratory
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution, Climatic Change, March 2018, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2159-5.
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