Climate Change and Conflict in Africa

What is it about?

This chapter explains how climate change is reshaping the map of violence in Africa, with a special focus on the Horn of Africa. It shows how rising temperatures, droughts, floods, and resource scarcity do not automatically cause wars, but rather exacerbate existing problems—such as weak governments, poverty, and local tensions—making them much worse. The chapter introduces the concept of a “single security space,” arguing that national security, personal safety, and environmental health are all interconnected and must be addressed collectively. Using examples from regions such as the Sahel, Lake Chad, Somalia, Mali, and the Nile Basin, it examines how climate stress can fuel competition over land and water, drive migration, and create opportunities for armed groups and terrorist organizations, including Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram, to recruit and gain power. Ultimately, the chapter inquires about the implications of these trends for the future of conflict in Africa and advocates for new, more integrated approaches to thinking about security and climate adaptation.

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Photo by Sofia Zubiria on Unsplash

Photo by Sofia Zubiria on Unsplash

Why is it important?

This chapter is important because it explains in clear terms how climate change is not just an environmental problem, but a key driver of future conflicts in Africa, especially in the fragile Horn of Africa. It shows how droughts, floods, and heat waves can destroy livelihoods, push people to migrate, fuel local tensions, and make it easier for armed groups and terrorists to recruit and expand. By linking climate stresses to security, terrorism, and weak governance, the chapter offers a new way of thinking about “security” as one connected space that includes people, states, and ecosystems, and it gives policymakers and practitioners concrete reasons to treat climate adaptation, conflict prevention, and counter‑terrorism as part of the same agenda.

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